I think there will be hundreds of thousand or even millions of cases in North America. The thing we need to be mindful off is that a positive test isn't a death sentence. Of our 17 local positives only one is in hospital and that is not because of the Covid itself but more so the poor reaction to the diagnosis and being unable to care for his/her self at home. More than half our positives are over 70 yrs old and 16 of 17 are confirmed travel related.
Let's not forget that in 2009-10 more than 59 Million Americans had contracted H1N1 and some 12 000 died as a result. Before this current outbreak had anyone thought about H1N1 recently? This too shall pass and the herd will be stronger on the other end. Yes I feel for those that get sick and the families of those that don't survive but we will get through this.
We need to compare apples to apples. I have been seeing epidemic vs epidemic a lot lately. The reason we have pandemics is because the virus is different from the last pandemic. Otherwise, we'd all have immunity and there'd be no pandemic. Even in this case with Corona, it is a different version from the previous SARS corona virus pandemic from the early 2000's. Having said that, 80% of fatalities from the 2009 H1N1(swine flu) were UNDER 65 years old because older folks still had some immunity left over from the previous strains of H1N1, giving some herd immunity to the elderly and a few younger. This differs hugely from the current virus. In this current pandemic, so few people had the previous version of SARS there's no chance of herd immunity even if the antibodies were effective against this new version, regardless of age. This strikes close to home because I have had that 2009 H1N1 version myself, and it nearly killed me. And I was 39 and in great health before I got it having worked the last 6 months in the UK in logging and forestry before returning back to Texas. I had a very bad fever(and loads of other issues) for a long time, bad pneumonia for a couple of weeks, and walking pneumonia for months. Literally months of coughing stuff up. I had back spasms for a year. My business partner, who was 25 years my elder, shrugged it off in days.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/burden-of-h1n1.html
In the US, there's not many stats yet. We can't say anything yet how it will go until more data comes in. That's the problem with a new pandemic - you won't really know how it treats you until it washes over you. Every health care system has their own curve, and every country is taking their own measures, and people are reacting differently. So this will affect each differently.
Ireland is in quarantine. We're still 'allowed' free movement, but the state has given us guidelines on how to go about it. Children and teens are still acting like idiots, though. The Irish president had to tell people to stop letting their kids roam about the place like they were on holidays. Pubs have shut down. Pubs don't even shut down for Christmas here, and they are to be shuttered for up to 6 weeks now. Restaurants have rearranged their seating, or only do delivery or take out, or have closed altogether. I've noticed traffic is not what it used to be. Gov is giving out welfare payments to about everyone. Banks have placed a moritorium on mortgage payments. So renters and landlords have a bit of a breather. Even our cable company has given us some breaks. And the banks and local businesses are trying to work things out. Still, airlines are gonna collapse and businesses are gonna disappear
I recall stating in the now deceased previous corona virus thread that this will hammer the economy back when most folks there said it was 'just a flu' and I was seeing some horrific stats from China. But, I honestly didn't think it would be this bad. Good luck to us all.
Our cases are slowing so far. We have drive through testing in the larger cities. One county has no instances of the virus yet. It's a county I haven't visited in 22 years - Monaghan. Apparently no one there travels. Many folks are wearing masks and gloves out in public. I was getting groceries yesterday and used a 75% alcohol gel on the cart and on my hands often. I'll prolly still get it tho
With lung damage from swine flu, who knows what will happen to me if I get it. But ya got to eat, and I got to bring food to the family. One woman actually brushed up against me. So folks still not used to avoiding each other, or I am far more sexy than I previously thought. We're considering using Tesco's home delivery now. Even so, at the rate of demand, it will take weeks before they can begin to deliver to us.
A good friend of mine is a health care worker here, and I know a few doctors personally both here and abroad, as well as the US. He's informed me there is at least one case in his relatively small ward. They only have one isolation room available. One doc I know stateside has told me he and his staff are absolutely exhausted already. This is only the tip. The health care system in Ireland is incapable of handing any epidemic. And most of us are well aware of this as the state of our hospitals was a key point in the recent elections(where the leading party losts it's majority afterwards). There are people waiting in hallways on trollys as we speak for other illnesses, and we do not have a lot of respirators. So if this gets out of hand, you will see the lethality climb similarly to how it did in Italy - where some areas reported relatively high double digit fatality percentages. Actually, as a whole, I think Italy is at 8.5% lethality so far. Italy is a good example of why you want to keep the infection under control - AKA flattening the curve. As were the early days in Wuhan where the reported rate was close to 17%. Every health care system has their own curve, and every country is taking their own measures, and people are reacting differently. So this will affect each differently.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
One thing to take away from the situational report, and one of the resons why Trump mentioned Germany recently, is the Germans have this completely under control...so far. But a lot of this is how they are controlling their population, and how their population is acting, and how awesome their health care system is SNIP Political Content. The gov has nearly placed everyone and everything on lock down. 20 deaths so far of over 11,000 reported cases(admittedly, most of which are recent). Testing everywhere since the beginning, and stern government control of travel and public behaviour since the outbreak.
I dunno what you guys are getting on the news there, but here they are saying the labs are furiously working on a vaccine and for treatments, and they've already started some clinical trials. Because someone's president said they were going to buy vaccines from Germany recently, Germany, as well as nearly all other European labs, have stated they do not intend to export anything until they have a handle on things locally in the months ahead. So, hopefully, the labs in the US won't take too much advantage of this pandemic
I used to work in health care in the states. Unless the feds or states step in, I dunno...