High Quality Chainsaw Bars Husqvarna Toys

Chainsaws and Lifelong Friendships Raffle Draw Date June 24th 8PM EDT.

GCJenks204

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I recently took a probability and statistics class. I thought this would be a neat experiment on what I learned. The problem becomes very difficult because because the odds are calculated without replacement. For example the first would be 60/1000 after a winner is picked the odds would be 59/999 the next would be 58/998. This would be fairly easy to calculate but the problem is you may have bought 10 tickets and been picked first, you are no longer eligible for a prize. first pick 60/1000 but the next pick assuming you had 10 tickets would be 59/989. Lets assume the next pick also bought 10 tickets...58/979 on a single ticket not even looking at the multiple ticket purchases.

we also can not use a binomial distribution because it doesn't follow the 4th rule

A binomial probability distribution results from a procedure that meets all the following requirements:


· The procedure must have a fixed number of trials.

· The trials must be independent.

· Each trial must have all outcomes classified into two categories.

· The probability of a success must remain constant for each trial.





I have typed this out for you Gentlemen to realize the 461 is mine so suck it. Hahahahahahaha

That deserves pushing the Best Answer button.

Hows come ?
The last raffle for Jeremy had members taking more than 1 pick, even within the first 10 picks

Are you sure Kevin? I had suggested being able to win more than once in this raffle but was shot down as it isn’t the way it is normally done.
 

Moparmyway

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Are you sure Kevin? I had suggested being able to win more than once in this raffle but was shot down as it isn’t the way it is normally done.
Doesn’t matter to me, I’m just wondering if we’re doing something different from what’s been done in the past
 

beaglebriar

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You guys are confusing me....o_O

The amount of consternation I am experiencing is immeasurable. I generally eschew such feelings, with disdain. However, in this instance, it is a matter of simply being flummoxed.
So you're constipated...it happens.. doesn't make you special.
 

Jon1212

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Hows come ?
The last raffle for Jeremy had members taking more than 1 pick, even within the first 10 picks

Quoted from the Fundraiser from Jeremy's fundraiser.
Next list.......

#16........ @Termitebuffet

#17........ @Deets066

#18........ @paragonbuilder

#19........ @beaglebriar

#20....... @USMC615

#21........ @hanniedog

#22....... @jacob j.

#23....... @drf256

#24....... @Gary Courtney

#25....... @jk14


#24....... @Gary Courtney you're up next

#25....... @jk14

#26..... @srcarr52

#27...... @treesmith

#28.... @Yukon Stihl

#29..... @Lightning Performance

#30...... @Troylee

#31...... @Need2Saw

#34 .... @HEAVYFUEL Yo......Heavy....you is up.
#35 .... @ajschainsaws
#36 .... @EvilRoySlade
#37 .... @ranchdadmike
#38 .... @wcorey
#39 .... @54stude
#40 .... @THop
#41 .... @blsnelling
#42 .... @PissRev
#43 .... @Definitive Dave
#44 .... @walt. FHC ??
#45 .... @paulman227
#46 .... @MustangMike
#47 .... @domino (Glen Sharp)
#48 .... @Redbull661
#49 .... @RI Chevy
#50 .... @SOS Ridgerider

Hey @Scotty Overkill ,it's Walt's turn.

#44 .... @walt. FHC ??
#45 .... @paulman227
#46 .... @MustangMike
#47 .... @domino (Glen Sharp)
#48 .... @Redbull661
#49 .... @RI Chevy
#50 .... @SOS Ridgerider

#50 .... @SOS Ridgerider
#51 .... @Scotty Overkill
#52 .... @malk315
#53 .... @ecsaws
#54 .... @Wood Chopper
#55 .... @Czed
#56 .... @Philbert
#57 .... @Warped5
#58 .... @cus_deluxe
#59 .... @tree monkey
#60 .... @jrcat
#61 .... @BonScott46
#62 .... @CapitaineHaddoc
#63 .... @Leerod83
#64 .... @cuinrearview
#65 .... @Only the Tony
#66 .... @dieselfitter
 

AlfA01

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Quoted from the Fundraiser from Jeremy's fundraiser.

I threw in $20 for the last raffle and pretty much just observed--I didn't have any expectations. I was curious to see what folks were doing on the philanthropic level.

From what I saw, the last raffle was ran with as much integrity as anyone could expect from any raffle. The guys who were keeping up with the winners and contacting them were top notch. Definitely not an easy task, especially with all the banter OPE members seem to obsessed with. ;)

Kudos for herding all those cats!

 

Moparmyway

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Why is this an issue? Seems some folks are totally losing sight of why these raffles are done in the first place. I could really give two chits if my is drawn once let alone twice.



As previousely stated:
Doesn’t matter to me, I’m just wondering if we’re doing something different from what’s been done in the past
 

AlfA01

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Would you happen to have the list from #1 through #15 ?

I think it's somewhere around pg. 83 - 86.

http://opeforum.com/threads/raffle-...fle-ends-on-monday-april-2-2018.11747/page-84

Why is this an issue? Seems some folks are totally losing sight of why these raffles are done in the first place. I could really give two chits if my is drawn once let alone twice.

Exacrrry. Totally philanthropic, and it is also nice to have some fun along the way as well. For me, that's the whole deal, as I'm donating my pick (if I'm picked) to a Armed Forces Veteran on the forum.

At $9405 today folks.
 

Deets066

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Are you sure Kevin? I had suggested being able to win more than once in this raffle but was shot down as it isn’t the way it is normally done.
There were members who were picked more than once in the last raffle. Doesn’t make much difference to me though. However you guys want to run it.
 

Wilhelm

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Okay folks......we have the 1st name!

@cuttinscott

Okay.......2nd name

Jake Holloway........contact @72thing

NEXT: 3rd pick

David Byrum

I found what might be him (David Byrum) on Facebook.
Let’s leave 3rd pick open until I hear back from him. I sent him a PM.
@leadfarmer is 4th pick

PICK #5.........

@Mastermind

Your pick Homeslice

#6.......Nathan Lassley

#7........ @Gentleman

#8......Matt Brinkley

#9....... @166

#10....... @Moparmyway

#11....... @GCJenks204

#12....... @Red97

#13........ @NCFarmboy

#14......... @Roadfxr

#15......... @nixon
I haven't noticed any drawing discrepancies in the last raffle.
I am also unaware of multiple prize winners, unless a single member got drawn under two different user names.

It was just very hard to follow due to a bunch of posts that had no positive affect to the drawing itself.
 
Last edited:

Mastermind

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Who got picked more than once? If that happened, it was a mistake. Our policy has to never allow more than one prize per entrant.

Dang it I aint made of gold. Heck I'll stop by first of August and try that one out to if your around.

I have a used ported 661 to sell....
 

Jon1212

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Who got picked more than once? If that happened, it was a mistake. Our policy has to never allow more than one prize per entrant.



I have a used ported 661 to sell....
It's okay Randy, it doesn't matter to @Moparmyway. He was totally mistaken about when it happened, and that it is very uncommon for a raffle to be run that way, but he doesn't care, which is why he brought it up.
 
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