High Quality Chainsaw Bars Husqvarna Toys Hockfire Saws

Chainsaws and Lifelong Friendships Raffle Draw Date June 24th 8PM EDT.

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KiwiBro (deleted)

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No way. The longer this thing goes on the less chance I have of winning anything. Draw it now (for the children and stuff) or or I'm suing for breach of contract and emotional distress.

Or sweeten the pot and include a pair of JJ's shoes. Who wouldn't want to walk a mile in those?
 
Semotony

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GCJenks204 said:
Oh please... you are at best 7th dibs.
Click to expand...

The old axiom "what goes around comes around" Also the probability of getting drawn is static 1/1000 if $10k is donated. The possibility of being drawn increases with the number of $10 donations made. Randy has made many $50 donations for example and I have tried to make a similar amount of donations to stay in the running. That, unfortunately, doesn't guarantee Randy or myself will be in the first sixty names drawn. Reality sumtimes is uncomfortable. Knowing that I am helping out a good man in difficult times is way better than just comfortable externally. A positive sense of self can't be stolen.
 
GCJenks204

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Semotony said:
The old axiom "what goes around comes around" Also the probability of getting drawn is static 1/1000 if $10k is donated. The possibility of being drawn increases with the number of $10 donations made. Randy has made many $50 donations for example and I have tried to make a similar amount of donations to stay in the running. That, unfortunately, doesn't guarantee Randy or myself will be in the first sixty names drawn. Reality sumtimes is uncomfortable. Knowing that I am helping out a good man in difficult times is way better than just comfortable externally. A positive sense of self can't be stolen.
Click to expand...

But your odds of being drawn at all are incredibly good. If you assume 1000 tickets your odds of being drawn first would be divisible by the number of tickets you bought but traditionally you can only win once so...

The second name odds are improved by the not only the number of tickets you bought but by the amount the first person bought too and so on and so on...

I can’t do all the math but I would guess the overall odds of winning a prize is about 1 in 4 or better.
 
AlfA01

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GCJenks204 said:
But your odds of being drawn at all are incredibly good. If you assume 1000 tickets your odds of being drawn first would be divisible by the number of tickets you bought but traditionally you can only win once so...

The second name odds are improved by the not only the number of tickets you bought but by the amount the first person bought too and so on and so on...

I can’t do all the math but I would guess the overall odds of winning a prize is about 1 in 4 or better.
Click to expand...

Just looked at the numbers on GoFundMe and it appears that by the end of the raffle 150+ people will have donated, which based on $10,000 (figuratively), would be an average donation of $60+ (6 tickets) each person and 1,000 tickets out there. We all know that's not the reality, but statistics rarely are reality. So, with 1,000 available tickets, and an average of 6 tickets per individual, you have something like .006 or .6% chance of winning if there were one prize. But, all things are not equal, and each entrant has not acquired 6 tickets exactly, and there are 60~ prizes.

So the odds go like this: any one ticket winning are 60 prizes/1000 tickets = 3/50 or 6/100 = 6% odds. Which can be increased exponentially with each ticket purchased.

So, for example, an entrant having 30/1000 tickets, the chance of winning would be 3% if only one prize were given. A binomial distribution would be the only way to actually calculate a semi-accurate chance of winning when 60+ prizes are available. Which gets kind of hairy and sketchy in the Maths, as you need to calculate the chances of the other 970 tickets being drawn without one of your 30 being picked.

But, here is a basic chance of winning with 30 tickets with a little distribution factoring: 1 - [(1000-30/1000)^60] = 1- .1608 = 16% or a 1 in 6.25 chance of winning at least one prize, if you hold 30 tickets.

And, not winning with 30 tickets: .8392 or 84% chance of not winning one of the 60 prizes.

Of course, everything changes when the 1st, 2nd, 3rd ~ 59th tickets are drawn. And, if there are no shows, those will change the odds even more. I'm not even getting started on the odds of being picked 1st or 10th or poop like that.

It's been a while since I've done Statistics, and there is some rust on the cranial bolts. Never liked Stats in the first place.
 
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